Akola Lok Sabha Elections 2024: In Own Bastion, BJP Faces Prakash Ambedkar Comeback, Cong's Maratha Candidate

A triangular contest is on the cards in the BJP stronghold of Akola, which is going to polls in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections on April 26. The altered political landscape and the strategy of the Congress to field a Maratha candidate may dent the prospects of the saffron nominee pitted against BR Ambedkar’s grandson Prakash Ambedkar, trying a comeback.

The erstwhile bastion of the Congress, Akola constituency in western Vidarbha had sent a heavyweight leader like Vasant Sathe to Lok Sabha, who had served as a union minister in 1980-82. The BJP breached this Congress citadel in 1989 with Pandurang Fundkar winning the contest. Barring 1996 and 1999, when Prakash Ambedkar was elected as MP from Akola, the BJP has retained its stronghold on the constituency.

Akola comprises six assembly segments, five of which are in the Akola district while one is located in Washim district. The assembly segments are Akot (BJP), Balapur (Shiv Sena UBT), Akola West (vacant, earlier with BJP), Akola East (BJP), Murtizapur (BJP) and Risod (Congress).

It presently represented by the BJP’s four-time MP Sanjay Dhotre. This time, he has made way for his son Anup Dhotre. The Congress, which is a constituent of the Maha Vikas Aghadi, has given a ticket to Dr Abhay Patil, a Maratha, unlike in 2014 and 2019 when the party had fielded a Muslim nominee, Hidayatulla Patel. Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi leader Prakash Ambedkar, who has been a two-time MP from the constituency, is also in the poll contest for Akola.

Political observers said factors like changed caste dynamics with the entry of Dr Abhay Patil, a Maratha, and reorganised political alliances in Maharashtra may dent the BJP’s prospects this time. Two strong regional influences – the Shiv Sena and NCP – have recently undergone splits that change the game to a large extent.

Senior journalist and political observer Shaukat Ali Mirsaheb is of the view that the main contest lies between Anup Dhotre and Abhay Patil.

“Anup Dhotre has inherited a strong BJP network as his father is a party veteran. The Dhotre senior enjoys a strong network in Akola district also,” he said.

He said the Congress candidate is a strong contender, who is active in the social field and enjoys a good connection with all sections of the society including the Maratha community. “Anup Dhotre is politically inexperienced which may also favour the Congress,” he added.

According to Mirsaheb, the ‘Modi factor’ won’t work in Akola this time. “Voters are worried over inflation, unemployment, MSP, and agricultural distress. There are complaints about people being left out of direct benefit transfer (DBT) and about the PM Awas Yojana,” he said.

Speaking about the poll prospects of Ambedkar, Mirsaheb said the Dalit leader has been contesting from Akola for the last 25 years. “But there is a question mark on whether Muslim votes will be transferred to Ambedkar,” he said.

BJP

Akola has been a BJP stronghold since 2004. For 20 years straight, the constituency has voted for the saffron party and its candidate Sanjay Dhotre. The four-time MP has now made way for his son Anup Dhotre to fight the election.

Anup finds himself contesting a crucial election in Maharashtra owing to his father’s ill-health. In fact, Sanjay’s health has even been used by the Congress to mount an attack against the BJP, in what could boomerang for the grand old party in a big way.

Caste rules the roost in Akola. The BJP has been winning the seat primarily because Sanjay is a strong Maratha leader, and the community and its sub-castes have been voting for him since 2014.

For the past two elections, the Congress fielded a Muslim candidate in Akola, hoping to benefit from a polarised electorate. Instead, it had to face massive drubbings, even finishing third in the 2019 elections, behind Prakash Ambedkar, who secured the second-highest vote share of about 25 per cent. The BJP, on the other hand, took the constituency home with double the vote share.

But, the BJP indeed faces a significant challenge in Akola this time. For starters, the political dynamics have drastically changed since 2019. The Shiv Sena and NCP are split into different factions. The Congress, backed by NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and Shiv Sena (UBT), has fielded a Maratha candidate, Abhay Patil, from the constituency. Effectively, this is the first time that the opposition is actively looking to breach the BJP’s Maratha support base and split the vote that the saffron party has dominated for decades.

The Congress and its allies are also hoping to cash in on the resentment that has been brewing within the Maratha community against the BJP on the issue of reservations. Although the state government yielded to demands for Maratha reservation earlier this year, the constitutional validity of the renewed quota system is facing a judicial test. Since the total reservation in Maharashtra now crosses 50%, the courts are expected to have a final say on the matter, and in the absence of constitutional provisions to grant more than 50% reservations, the state government’s SEBC Act 2024 is expected to be stayed.

Moreover, the state government yielding to demands for Maratha reservation is largely seen as a victory for activist Manoj Jarange Patil, who has been running a spirited agitation on the issue. As such, the BJP is indeed anxious about the opposition capitalising on the issue and denting the saffron party’s support among Marathas.

Recently, the BJP’s house in Akola was also seen to be in disorder. This was because senior leader Narayan Gavhankar rebelled and filed his nomination as an independent candidate. Gavhankar, who has been working for the BJP in Akola since the 1980s alleges that he has repeatedly been overlooked by the party because he is not a Maratha. Following parleys with Devendra Fadnavis, Gavhankar eventually withdrew himself from the race. If he were to indeed contest, the BJP would face a real prospect of its votes getting dented by one of their own.

There is also a level of anti-incumbency against incumbent MP Sanjay Dhotre, although now that his son has been fielded by the BJP, it remains to be seen how such resentment plays out on polling day. The Congress and its allies have been attacking the BJP issues over like unemployment, lack of development, price rise and problems faced by farmers. There are also allegations of corruption in whatever little development work has taken place.

Net-net, the advantage is with the BJP. This is primarily because the fight in Akola is triangular. The Congress, which finished third in the 2019 elections, has a long distance to cover in terms of vote share. The best it can hope for is that it significantly dents BJP’s Maratha vote base, thereby giving VBA’s Prakash Ambedkar an opening to win the seat with his Dalit-Muslim support base. However, that too is easier said than done, since the Congress and VBA see to have grown a liking for attacking each other instead of uniting against the BJP.

Congress

Abhay Patil Raises Congress Hopes: The Congress’ broad strategy in this election is to make contests hyper-local. In Akola, Congress candidate Dr Abhay Patil is a respected leader who is attracting crowds on his broad development plank and speaking on local issues that require addressal. Largely seen as an educated face, Abhay Patil’s biggest advantage could be his caste, as he belongs to the Maratha-Kunbi community. Patil’s efforts as a social worker are also expected to help him.

The Congress hopes to divide the Maratha vote in Akola, which has traditionally gone in favour of the BJP. Apart from that, ground inputs also suggest that a significant chunk of the Muslim votes could be headed Congress’ way. However, a lot depends on the quantum of Maratha votes Congress can pull away from the BJP. Without a significant share of those votes, the Congress cannot hope to win the seat.

For the Congress, the most impact that the fielding of Abhay Patil can have is in the Washim region of Akola. Despite fielding a Maratha-Kunbi, the Congress still has a long way to go, as numerically, the BJP’s influence among Marathas and the many sub-castes among them is higher.

Ultimately, the Congress is fighting the election in Akola on hope. The hope is that the Modi factor this time around will not be as significant as it was in 2014 and 2019. However, ground inputs suggest that the Modi wave continues to be the biggest factor working in the BJP’s favour. In front of it, the Congress’ many strategies could fall flat on their face.

To top it all, PM Modi is set to campaign on April 20 in Akola himself. That would provide the BJP with a galvanisation of votes in its favour, just a week ahead of elections. Whether Abhay Patil has the capability to stand against Modi and emerge on top remains to be seen, but the chances are not very high.

The Congress somewhere realises that the fight is extremely tough for it in Akola, which is why it was keen for an alliance with Prakash Ambedkar and the VBA. If the alliance would have gone through, the Congress would have put its weight behind Ambedkar’s candidature from the seat, and that would prove to be a serious challenge for the BJP. Instead, the Congress announced its candidate only on April 1, leaving Abhay Patil with less than a month to engage in hardcore campaigning.

A section local leadership and workers of the Congress in Akola are of the opinion that the party should have supported the VBA here. That could very well be a tell-tell sign of the Congress organisation in Akola not being very confident of victory.

VBA

The fight in Akola is a solid three-way contest between the BJP, Congress and Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA). Until the BJP wrested the seat from him in 2004, Prakash Ambedkar was its MP since 1998. The constituency has a Muslim-Dalit voter base of about 36%, making it a fertile ground for the VBA.

For Prakash Ambedkar, the fight in Akola is to resolve local issues and ensure development of those who have historically been on the margins of progress. Prakash, the grandson of BR Ambedkar says his priority will be on ensuring employment in Akola, and to do that, he seeks to tap into the agro-based industry. He is also promising reservation for OBCs in promotions.

In worrying news for Ambedkar, the Muslim voters could favour the Congress this time. That would make defeat an inevitability for the VBA in Akola. Therefore, to balance the equation, or at least attempt to do so, the VBA has managed to rope in Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM to support it here. Owaisi has urged his workers and supporters in Akola to vote for Prakash Ambedkar. Whether this will result in any meaningful vote transfer on ground remains to be seen.

Ambedkar has also been upping the ante against the Congress, and has alleged that state Congress chief Nana Patole is in cahoots with the BJP, which is why a VBA-Congress tie-up is not a reality. The Congress, on the other hand, is accusing the VBA and AIMIM of being BJP’s B-team. In an election where the Congress and VBA were expected to put up a united front against the BJP, the two parties are rather occupied taking stabs at each other. As a result, the BJP retain the edge in Akola.

Here are the key issues of the constituency:

Voter demographic

Total voters: 19,11,852

Urban voters: 6,95,914 (36.4%)

Rural voters: 12,15,938 (63.6%)

Hindus: 62.4%

Muslims: 19.2%

Buddhists: 17.57%